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This year the people of Northern Ireland will go to the polls to elect 108 MLA’s to the Northern Ireland Assembly on May 5th.

The current standings of the parties are as follows:

• Democratic Unionist Party: 36
• Sinn Fein: 27
• Ulster Unionist Party: 18
• Social Democratic and Labour Party: 16
• Alliance Party: 7
• Green Party: 1
• Independents: 5

The campaign is well under way since the Assembly was dissolved on 24th of March and a number of issues have been raised.

Issues raised have been health, education, policing, and the possibility of a Sinn Fein First Minister. This may be seen as scaremongering, but it is a possibility.

I will be following the election as it progresses. Below is some of the Party Election Broadcast that have been shown.

DUP

Sinn Fein

UUP

SDLP

Alliance

Green Party

UKIP

BNP

Have I missed any? Let me know.

I think it is a really smart broadcast and focuses and all the relevant stuff. Must say it has impressed me hugely.

Related articles

• AV Special: What is it? How do I vote? What should I vote? (politicalpromise.co.uk)

Now that picture above would be ok if it showed the actual results. But it dosen’t. Its the transfer analysis from the Dublin Central By-Election in 2009 which is on Elections Ireland. Not many people look at the page apart from Politics heads like me. The actual results of that election was

The full results can be viewed on the Elections Ireland page. Its fairly obvious from that picture who won the election, even from the first count. It really shows the desperation of those on the No side when they are peddling myths on how confusing AV (and by extension STV) are when in reality they are not.

Heres hoping the Yes Side will win.

Related articles

• Adopting the alternative vote would be a very British revolution | Andrew Rawnsley (guardian.co.uk)
• Alternative vote system would see MPs denied ‘jobs for life’, says Dyke (guardian.co.uk)
• Channel 4′s Factcheck slates No2AV campaign’s claims (libdemvoice.org)

Under the Bill the UK will have to hold a referendum if the treaty meets one of these conditions:

(a) the extension of the objectives of the EU as set out in Article 3 of TEU;

(b) the conferring on the EU of a new exclusive competence;

(c) the extension of an exclusive competence of the EU;

(d) the conferring on the EU of a new competence shared with the member  States;

(e) the extension of any competence of the EU that is shared with the member States;

(f) the extension of the competence of the EU in relation to—

(i) the co-ordination of economic and employment policies, or

(ii) common foreign and security policy;

(g) the conferring on the EU of a new competence to carry out actions to support, co-ordinate or supplement the actions of member States;

(h) the extension of a supporting, co-ordinating or supplementing competence of the EU;

(i) the conferring on an EU institution or body of power to impose a requirement or obligation on the United Kingdom, or the removal of any limitation on any such power of an EU institution or body;

(j) the conferring on an EU institution or body of new or extended power to impose sanctions on the United Kingdom;

(k) any amendment of a provision listed in Schedule 1 that removes a requirement that anything should be done unanimously, by consensusor by common accord;

(l) any amendment of Article 31(2) of TEU (decisions relating to common foreign and security policy to which qualified majority voting applies) that removes or amends the provision enabling a member of the Council to oppose the adoption of a decision to be taken by qualified majority voting;

(m) any amendment of any of the provisions specified in subsection (3) that removes or amends the provision enabling a member of the Council, in relation to a draft legislative act, to ensure the suspension of the ordinary legislative procedure

It is important to note that if the treaty does any of the following, a Referendum is not needed and an Act of Parliament would suffice,

(a) the codification of practice under TEU or TFEU in relation to the previous exercise of an existing competence;
(b) the making of any provision that applies only to member States other than the United Kingdom;
(c) in the case of a treaty, the accession of a new member State.
 

It is an interesting idea from the Coalition Government. Maybe it is something we should consider doing here as it would remove some of the confusion that it exists in relation to the Crotty Judgement and would set out when we actually do need to hold a referendum on European Treaties.

Hattip: Archbishop Cranmer

Related Links:

• As Euro-sceptic experts differ on the effect of the Government’s European Union Bill, most Tory MPs will vote to let it pass (Conservative Home)
• British MPs to debate EU ‘referendum lock’ (Business Review Europe)
• Conservative EU rebels test Cameron’s authority (Telegraph)

This Evening the House of Commons will be debating the Loans to Ireland Bill which will allow the United Kingdom to give a loan of £3,250 million to Ireland.

The plan is that the bill will finish off all stages today. It will pass the Committee stage in the whole House.

Already today the issue has been raised four times in the House of Commons. The first time by Mark Reckless, MP for Rochester and Strood, during Northern Ireland Questions, in relation to assets held by NAMA in Northern Ireland and suggested that maybe some of these assets could be used as collateral in the loan. The second time was in relation to the effect of the economy in the Republic on the North. Northern Ireland Minister, Hugo Swire MP for East Devon, said that it was important that the UK was seen as part of the solution for Ireland and not the problem.

During Prime Ministers Questions, Mark Reckless MP, again, raised the issue of the loan to Ireland and suggested that the UK does not follow the wishes of the German Finance Minister. David Cameron in his response agreed with Mark Reckless and said that he was glad that the UK could come to Ireland’s aid.

I will be watching the debate on the bill and it will be interesting to see some of the remarks that are made.

A statement by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the Rt. Hon. Mr George Osborne. From Hansard:

With permission, Mr Speaker, I should like to make a statement regarding financial assistance for Ireland.I hope Members will understand that an announcement had to be made at the weekend, ahead of markets opening this morning. Last night, I spoke to the Chair of the Treasury Committee and the shadow Chancellor to keep them informed of the latest developments.

The United Kingdom, alongside the International Monetary Fund, the European Union, the eurozone and other member states, is participating in the international financial assistance package for Ireland announced last night. We are doing this because it is overwhelmingly in Britain’s national interest that we have a stable Irish economy and banking system.

The current Irish situation has become unsustainable. Its sovereign debt markets had effectively closed and had little prospect of reopening. While Britain’s market interest rates had fallen over the past six months, Ireland’s had risen to record levels, and Ireland’s banks had become completely reliant on central bank funding to maintain their operations. In the judgment of the Irish Government, as well as of the IMF and others, this situation could not go on.

Members will understand that it would not have been appropriate for us in recent weeks to have engaged in public speculation about whether Ireland should request assistance from the international community, but I can now report that we have been engaged in intensive private discussions with the G7, the IMF, the EU and the Irish Government on plans for the eventuality that Ireland would request support. At the G20 meeting in South Korea two weeks ago, I was one of the European Finance Ministers who issued a joint statement that provided a brief respite. At the ECOFIN meeting last Wednesday, my colleagues and I discussed the Irish situation with Finance Minister Brian Lenihan, with whom I have also kept in touch directly. Following meetings in Brussels, the Irish Government committed to engage in a short and focused consultation with the IMF and the EU. On Thursday a joint mission arrived in Dublin, and in the last few days I engaged with my counterparts in the G7, the euro area and the EU about the way forward.

Following intense work over the weekend between the Irish and international authorities, last night Ireland’s Prime Minister, Brian Cowen, made a formal request for assistance. This was followed by statements from the G7, the IMF, the Eurogroup and European Finance Ministers to

“provide the necessary financial resources for Ireland to implement its fiscal reform plans and stabilise its banking system.”

The statements made it clear that there were two components to the rescue package. The first puts beyond doubt Ireland’s ability to fund itself. The international assistance package will support an ambitious four-year fiscal strategy which the Irish government will set out later this week. This will see a fiscal consolidation of €15 billion by 2014, of which €6 billion will be implemented next year, as part of a strategy leading to a target budget deficit of 3% of GDP in four years’ time. The second part of the assistance package is a fund for potential future capital needs of the banking sector. This will support measures to promote deleveraging and ensure restructuring of Ireland’s banks, so that its banking system can perform its role in supporting the economy.

Let me turn to how the package will be financed. This is a joint programme, with funding from both the IMF and the EU. The amount of money involved will, in part, depend on the IMF’s analysis of what is needed, and Prime Minister Cowen has said that he expects it to be less than €100 billion. The international community is working on the rough assumption that the IMF will contribute about one third of the total. The total European package will provide the other two thirds. Based on the significant reform of the IMF agreed by G20 Finance Ministers last month, the IMF is well placed to play a leading role in this international effort. The UK, of course, is an important shareholder of the IMF and we will meet these multilateral obligations. I would like to reassure the House that the IMF is currently well resourced and able to meet the cost of the package for Ireland.

The European element of this package will primarily come from two sources of funding agreed in May before this Government came into office: the €60 billion European financial stabilisation mechanism; and the €440 billion European financial stability facility. The balance between the European mechanism and the eurozone facility will be determined in the coming days. The United Kingdom is not a member of the euro, and will not be a member of the euro while we are in government, and so we will not participate in the eurozone stability fund. To be fair to my predecessor, he kept us out of that fund, but he did agree to the UK’s involvement in the European mechanism two days before we took office. I made it clear at the time that I did not believe he should make that commitment. However, it operates according to qualified majority voting and so we cannot stop it being used, and to exercise that vote at this time would, I judge, be very disruptive. So the EU will lend money to Ireland on behalf of all 27 member states, and the UK must accept its share of this contingent liability, which would arise in the unlikely scenario that Ireland should default on its obligations to the EU.

On top of this, I have agreed that the UK should consider offering a bilateral loan to Ireland, as part of the IMF and European package. I judge this to be in Britain’s national interest. Let me explain why. We have strong economic relations with Ireland. Ireland accounts for 5% of Britain’s total exports—indeed, we export more to Ireland than to Brazil, Russia, India and China put together. Ireland is the only country with which we share a land border, and in Northern Ireland our economies are particularly linked, with two fifths of its exports going to the Republic.

Just as our two economies are connected, our two banking sectors are also interconnected. I should stress that the resilience of our own banks, which are now well capitalised, means that they are well placed to manage any impact from the situation in Ireland. But two of the four largest high street banks operating in Northern Ireland are Irish-owned, accounting for almost a quarter of personal accounts. The Irish banks have an important presence in the UK. What is more, two Irish banks are actual issuers of sterling notes in Northern Ireland. It is clearly in Britain’s interest that we have a growing Irish economy and a stable Irish banking system. By considering a bilateral loan, we are recognising these deep connections between our two countries and, crucially, it has helped us to be at the centre of the discussions that have shaped the conditions of an international assistance package that is of huge importance to our economy. Of course, this is a loan and we can expect to be repaid. In fact, Sweden has already deemed it to be in its national interest to consider a bilateral loan to Ireland.

Now that the Irish Government have requested assistance, a lot of the detailed work of putting together the package can take place. I understand that Members are keen to hear the specifics, such as the rate of interest on the loans, the repayment periods and the contribution from each of the various elements of the package. I shall keep the House informed.

Later this week, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland and my hon. Friend the Financial Secretary to the Treasury will be in Northern Ireland to discuss the situation there. I will ensure there is a specific discussion in the House if there is a bilateral loan, and we will need to take primary powers.

Finally, let me say something about the future of the various European support funds, which are being discussed later this year. Both the Prime Minister and I are very clear that when it comes to putting in place a permanent eurozone bail-out mechanism, the UK will not be part of that.

This is a situation of great difficulty for Ireland and it is a tragedy when it did so much to improve its competitiveness with low taxes and flexible labour markets, but the truth is that it had a hugely leveraged banking sector that was badly regulated—a pattern that we have had to deal with in our own country. In addition, because Ireland is a member of the euro, exchange rate flexibility and independent monetary policy were not tools available to it when the crisis took hold. The arguments against Britain joining the euro are well rehearsed, not least by me, but although “I told you so” might be correct, it does not amount to an economic policy.

When the coalition Government came into office, Britain was in the financial danger zone. We have taken action to put our house in order. We were once seen as part of the problem, but we are now part of the solution. Ireland is a friend in need and it is in our national interests that we should be prepared to help at this difficult time. I commend the statement to the House.

Related articles

• Ireland bailout: UK to lend £7bn (guardian.co.uk)
• George Osborne moves to reassure Eurosceptics over £7bn loan to Ireland (guardian.co.uk)
• Statement from EU finance ministers (irishelection.com)

My last post had a quick look at what the Con/Lib Agreement said on Political Reform. Now look at what should be a what the Agreement says on the EU. As a Euroblogger I probably should have done this first!

The UK will not join the Euro. No surprise there.

They will try to limit the Working Time Directive in its application to the UK.

The 1972 European Communities Act will be amended so that any proposed future Treaty that transferred areas of power, or competences, would be subject to a referendum on that Treaty. Basically the idea of the Irish Crotty Judgement incorporated into UK Law.

The Sovereignty Bill is only a maybe. The basis will be “examined”

They will press for the European Parliament only to have one seat, in Brussels. I hope they will push hard on this!

Thay have agreed that that all forthcoming legislation in the area of criminal justice will be judged on a case by case basis, with a view to maximising our country’s security and protecting Britain’s civil liberties. Britain will not participate in the establishment of any European Public Prosecutor.

It is an interesting agreement on Europe and it looks like the Liberal Democrats managed to hold back the Conservatives on some of the most europhobic parts of the party.

Another interesting part of this is that Nick Clegg may actually have more influence before a European Council then David Cameron. I am sure he will be ensuring that he attends the get togethers of the Liberal Leaders before summits, David Cameron on the other hand has no one to meet in the ECR, the Conservatives grouping in the European Parliament.

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• David Cameron and Nick Clegg: a marriage made here (guardian.co.uk)
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The Liberal Democrats have posted the agreement online. Here are some of things that jump out at me on Political Reform.

• We agree to establish a committee to bring forward proposals for a wholly or mainly elected upper chamber on the basis of proportional representation.
• The parties agree to the establishment of five year fixed-term parliaments
• The parties will bring forward a Referendum Bill on electoral reform, which includes provision for the introduction of the Alternative Vote in the event of a positive result in the referendum, as well as for the creation of fewer and more equal sized constituencies.
• The parties will bring forward early legislation to introduce a power of recall,
• We have agreed to establish a commission to consider the ‘West Lothian question’
• The parties agree to the implementation of the Calman Commission proposals and the offer of a referendum on further Welsh devolution.

Some big things there! What jumps out at you?

Also David Cameron has just announced that Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister will be responsible for Political Reform. So this will be an important part of the agreement.

Taken from the StephenSpillane.com Facebook page notes:

Here is the cabinet as it is announced. The Liberal Democrats are expected to get 5 posts, 3  are confirmed (Clegg, Laws, Cable), but 2 others have been mentioned (Huhne (Climate and Energy) and Alexander (Scotland) . So far only one woman as been appointed. (13:20 update)

The Full Cabinet as Announced:

Prime Minister – David Cameron (Con)

Deputy Prime Minister – Nick Clegg (LD)

Chancellor of the Exchequer – George Osborne (Con)

Foreign Secretary – William Hague (Con)

Secretary of State for Education – Michael Gove (Con)

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions – Iain Duncan Smith (Con)

Secretary of State for Health – Andrew Lansley (Con)

Secretary of State for Scotland – Danny Alexander (LD)

Secretary of State for Defence – Liam Fox (Con)

Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change – Chris Huhne (LD)

Secretary of State for Home Affairs and minister for Women and Equality – Theresa May (Con)

Secretary of State of Justice and Lord Chancellor – Kenneth Clarke (Con)

Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills – Vince Cable (LD)

Chief Whip – Patrick McLoughlin (Con)

Chief Secretary to the Treasury – David Laws (LD)

Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government – Eric Pickles (Con)

Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs – Caroline Spelman (Con)

Secretary of State for Transport – Philip Hammond (Con)

Secretary of State for International Development – Andrew Mitchell (Con)

Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport – Jeremy Hunt (Con)

Secretary of State for Northern Ireland – Owen Paterson (Con)

Secretary of State for Wales – Cheryl Gillan (Con)

Leader of the House of Lords, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster – Lord Strathclyde (Con)

Leader of the House of Commons, Lord Privy Seal – Sir George Young (Con)

Minister for the Cabinet Office, Paymaster General – Francis Maude (Con)

Minister of State, Cabinet Office – Oliver Letwin (Con)

Minister of State (Universities and Science) – Department for Business, Innovation, and Skills – David Willetts (Con)

Minister without portfolio – Baroness Warsi (also Conservative Party chairman) (Con)

Attorney General – Dominic Grieve (Con)

Appointed:

Prime Minister: David Cameron (Con)

Deputy Prime Minister: Nick Clegg (LD)

Chancellor of the Exchequer: George Osborne (Con)

Foreign Secretary: William Hague (Con)

Health Secretary: Andrew Lansley (Con)

Defence Secretary: Liam Fox (Con)

Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary: Ken Clarke (Con)

Home Secretary and Minister for Women and Equality: Theresa May (Con)

Chief Whip: Patrick McLoughlin (Con)

Business Secretary: Vince Cable (LD)

Schools Secretary: Michael Gove (Con)

Chief Secretary to the Treasury: David Laws (LD)

Scotland Secretary: Danny Alexander (LD)

15:15 Communities and Local Government Secretary: Eric Pickles (Con)

15:35 Work and Pensions Secretary: Iain Duncan Smith (Con)

Possible Appointments:

Attorney General: Dominic Grieve (Con)

Environment and Climate Change Secretary: Chris Huhne (LD)

Culture Secretary: Jeremy Hunt (Con)

Conservative Party Chairman: Baroness Warsi (Con)

Environment, Food and Rural Affairs: Caroline Spelman (Con)

Cabinet Office: Francis Maude (Con)

Still to be Appointed:

Welsh Secretary

Northern Ireland Secretary

Transport Secretary

International Development Secretary

Paymaster General

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• New Cabinet: who got what job? (telegraph.co.uk)

One of the electoral systems that is currently used in the UK for European Parliament Elections, London Assembly, Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament elections is currently being ignored in the talk about a new electoral system for the UK. So I did a little experiment with the Election Calculus Simulator. I used the different nations of the UK as the basis of the constituencies. (For purpose of these I ignored the votes for others, all vote figures were taken from the BBC website)

So lets take a look at the results.

England (533 Seats)

List System:

• Conservatives (40.0%):215
• Labour (28.4%):152
• Lib Dem (24.5%):131
• UKIP (3.5%):18
• BNP (2.1%):11
• Green (1.0%): 5
• English Democrats (0.3%):1

Actual results:

• Conservatives: 297
• Labour: 191
• Liberal Democrats: 43
• Green: 1

Scotland (59 Seats)

List System:

• Labour (42.2%): 26
• SNP (20.0%): 12
• Lib Dem (19.0%): 11
• Conservative (16.8%): 10

Actual Result:

• Labour: 41
• Lib Dem: 11
• SNP: 6
• Conservatives: 1

Wales (40 Seats)

List System:

• Labour (36.9%): 16
• Conservatives (26.5%): 11
• Liberal Dems (20.5%): 8
• Plaid Cymru (11.5%): 4
• UKIP (2.5%): 1

Actual Result:

• Labour: 26
• Conservative: 8
• Lib Dem: 3
• Plaid Cymru: 3

Northern Ireland (18 seats)

List System:

• SF (27.5%): 6
• DUP (26.9%): 5
• SDLP (17.7%): 3
• UUP (16.3%): 3
• Alliance (6.8%): 1

Actual Result:

• DUP: 8
• SF :5
• SDLP: 3
• Alliance 1
• Others: 1

This would have translated to a parliament made of the following:

• Conservatives:  236
• Labour: 194
• Liberal Democrats: 150
• UKIP: 19
• SNP: 12
• BNP: 11
• SF: 6
• Greens: 5
• DUP: 5
• Plaid: 4
• SDLP: 3
• UUP: 3
• Alliance: 1
• English Democrats: 1

Now that would be an interesting Parliament!

I doubt that the List sytem would be used for the House of Commons, but it could be a possibility for the House of Lords. That makes it all the more interesting!