Yesterday I found this post on the Telegraph website (via Stephen Kinsella). Its quite a worrying read for those of us who are worried about Ireland’s future.

Ireland is funded until April but after that we will have to return to the bond market. Our auctions are currently suspended. As Colm McCarthy said in the Irish Independent

“The €1.5bn not borrowed in October plus the €1.5bn not borrowed in November represent borrowing postponed, not borrowing avoided,”

If we can’t raise this money, we may have to tap our pensions reserve of €12bn, but that is not a good idea as we do need that money.

The spreads over German Bunds are mimicking the action seen in Greece in the final hours before the dam broke.

This is a worrying sign. Are we about to the way of Greece?

Even if the government manage to win the Donegal South West election and pass the budget, we might still not be better off.

Its looking like sooner or later we will have to go cap in hand to the EU-IMF bailout fund.

Related articles

• Ireland’s Fiscal Situation Is So Bad, The IMF Had To Modify This Chart (businessinsider.com)
• Ireland ‘edging closer to debt default’ (irishexaminer.com)

So Fine Gael’s Senator Eugene Regan made a formal complaint to the European Commission about NAMA.

He claims the ‘scale and scope’ of the scheme is disproportionate to the size of the Irish economy, transfers too much risk from the banks onto the Irish taxpayer and does not contain sufficient safeguards that Irish depositors and borrowers will not be forced to pay for the huge mistakes by Irish banks.

Now I think most people would agree with that, but why go crying to the EU now? I thought the Government claimed they cleared this with the EU? Then again they never produced the proof.

The submission can be read here (PDF)

“Fine Gael has grave concerns about the NAMA scheme and the implications it will have for each and every citizen of the Irish State. We opposed the NAMA proposal in the Dáil and Seanad, along with many others, but Fianna Fáil and the Greens forced their ill-advised plans through regardless. Our concerns persist and we have highlighted them is this submission. They include the lack of transparency, flawed valuation methodology, no guarantee of credit flows from banks and inadequate burden-sharing between the banks and the taxpayer.

“The complaint to the Commission calls for the exclusion of Anglo Irish Bank from the scheme and the divestment of non-core assets of Bank of Ireland and AIB to ensure that the focus of each institution is on the provision of credit to the Irish economy.

“The Government has so far presented EU approval of NAMA as a formality and I am asking the Commission to critically examine the bankers/ developers bailout known as NAMA with a view to limiting its scale and scope so that the cost to taxpayers and the State can be minimised.

“While the choice of asset relief scheme is decided by member states, the scale and scope of the NAMA project to be undertaken by the Irish Government, as set out in the draft NAMA business plan, is entirely disproportionate to the size of the Irish economy and budgetary resources and threatens the financial viability of the State itself.

“The scheme also ignores key guidelines issued by the European Commission in relation to transparency in the valuation of assets and the risk-sharing element which sees the taxpayer shouldering most of the burden. Furthermore, the unrealistic assumptions in relation to the ‘long-term economic value’ of assets will unquestionably have a severely negative impact on the Irish State, and its people, for generations to come.

Most of the above we have heard before. But is Brussels willing or able to do anything about it? NAMA is passed. Its law. I know Fine Gael couldnt raise it before it was passed with the Commission, but still is it not a bit late? A bit of crying over spilt milk?

I cant see Brussels telling the Government to undo NAMA, but we see what happens. But we will be waiting I would say!

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• Fine Gael Complain about NAMA (thedossingtimes.com)

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The statement calls Anglo a “major financial institution whose viability is of systemic importance to Ireland”. The reason for the nationalisation is “unacceptable practices that took place within it have caused serious reputational damage to the bank at a time when overall market sentiment towards it was negative”.

So basically the state is not only bailing Anglo out, it is putting tax payers money at risk.

Northern Rock nationalisation hasnt worked very well in the UK. I wonder how well it will work here?